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Monsoon this year is expected to remain normal with Kerala getting the first showers on June 4. This is as per the update given by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday. IMD revised its previous estimate and suggested that in June, rainfall may remain lower than normal. Despite El-Nino, south-west monsoon is expected to remain normal.
This year, the weather department has changed its approach to providing forecasts. Typically, the weather department starts issuing long-term forecasts and then gradually releases more predictions as the monsoon season approaches. However, this time, the weather department has only made predictions regarding rainfall in the month of June. It has been stated that most parts of the country will experience below-average rainfall during June.
July, August, and September are considered the most crucial months in terms of the monsoon season. The weather department has not provided any clear statement regarding these months. If we look at the headlines, it has been reiterated that the monsoon will remain normal. The weather department has stated that there is an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. This raises concerns about El Nino. Efforts are being made to gather information on this. The IMD is expected to release its forecast for July in the last week of June, which will provide more detailed information about the monsoon this year.
In fact, even the weather department is not clear about the exact behavior of the monsoon that will reach the coast of Kerala in June. That is why the forecast for rainfall in July and August, regarding how the monsoon will progress, will be issued towards the end of June.
The government is taking preparations to increase the storage of seeds for kharif crops amid concerns of a potential drought-like situation amidst the forecast of El Niño. Under this initiative, the government is increasing the storage of kharif seeds by up to four percent. Normally, the government maintains a one percent reserve. This reserve of kharif seeds will not be distributed until August 15.