Covid-19: Scientists could not predict the exact nature of second wave

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A group of scientists working on mathematical models to predict the rise in coronavirus cases have said that were unable to identify the exact dynamics of the second wave of coronavirus infections.

They said that the mathematical models had predicted a second wave of coronavirus in the third week of April, but the model could not track the exact trajectory and its devastating impact.

As per the statement issued by the department of science and technology, and signed by IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal, integrated defense staff deputy chief, Madhuri Kanitkar, and IIT Hyderabad professor M Vidyasagar, the mathematical models had predicted a second wave of coronavirus and its peak in the third week of April with daily cases more than 1 lakh.

A mathematical model can only predict the future with some certainty so long as virus dynamics and its transmissibility do not change substantially over time.

With the rapidly changing nature of the virus, any prediction must be continually readjusted, sometimes almost daily.

“We are working closely with the government and our inputs have always been received positively. While we could not predict the exact nature of the second wave earlier, we continue our efforts to better estimate its future trajectory,” the statement added.

The scientists confirmed that the government sought its inputs on April 2 when they predicted a peak would come around the third week of that month.

“A meeting was called on 2nd April to seek our inputs by one of the very senior officers of the government coordinating the national pandemic response. We indicated that the SUTRA model predicted the second wave to peak by the third week of April and to stay most likely around 1 lakh daily cases,” the scientists said in the statement.