Pace of business activity takes a hit in second week of April: Nomura India Business report

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The pace of business activity in India has taken a setback due to mobility restrictions imposed in several states, brokerage firm Nomura said in a report recently. Several states have imposed strict localised lockdowns to combat the second wave of Covid-19, which many believe could adversely impact the Indian economy.

The Nomura India Business Index fell about 16 percentage points below the pre-pandemic level. It slipped to 83.8 for the week that ended on April 18. It was at 88.4 a week prior.

This index tracks high-frequency economic indicators like mobility which was severely impacted again since the beginning of April this year. The report hinted towards worsening of the economic situation in the coming times.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his national address on April 20 that lockdown should be considered as the last resort, many states have imposed localised curfews and/or lockdowns which directly impact micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal announced a six-day lockdown in the national capital after Covid-19 cases sky-rocketed in the last two weeks. The lockdown will remain imposed until 5 AM on April 26.

Reason for concern

Nomura economists – Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi – who co-authored the report expressed concerns over possible mobility restrictions spreading nationwide. They, however, revealed labour participation rate in the country remained immune to the second wave of the infection until now.

Kejriwal, while announcing the lockdown, requested migrant workers to not head back to their native village in the fear of extended lockdowns. However, several labours are expected to return home from Delhi and Maharashtra in the fear of being unemployed like last year.

With record-breaking cases of coronavirus being registered on an everyday basis, it is safe to say Covid 2.0 has been far more lethal than its first wave in 2020.

India recorded as many as 2,95,041 new COVID-19 cases and 2,023 deaths in the past 24 hours, according to the Health Ministry.