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India is witnessing a second wave of COVID-19 beginning Feb’21, that may last up to 100 days counted from 15-February, a SBI report released Thursday said.  Based on the data till 23 March, SBI expects up to 25 lakh cases in the second wave.

While the global COVID-19 experience shows that second wave is much higher in intensity than the first, presence of vaccine will make a difference and India will be able to manage the situation in a better way, the report said. Localized lockdowns/restrictions have not resulted in controlling the spread of infection. This is visible in case of many states including Maharashtra and Punjab, the report noted adding that increasing the speed of vaccination is the only way to win the battle against the pandemic.

“Certain states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala, Uttarakhand, Haryana have vaccinated more than 20% of their elderly population (above 60 years). Several states with higher elderly population (>60 years) including Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal have vaccinated less percentage of their elderly population and must increase their pace of inoculation, “the report said.

Quoting a study on the Great Pandemic flu of 1918-19, SBI said, second wave occurred only after the restrictions imposed were relaxed. If highly effective non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are put in place early stages, the impact is smaller. A large proportion of population will remain susceptible to the second wave if the these interventions are relaxed, the report noted.

The study noted a drop in the business activity. “Business activity Index based on high frequency indicators has declined in the recent week ending 22 Mar’21 with the latest value at 101.7 (the lowest in 1 month) from 104.6 in the previous week,” it said.