When will Covid second wave peak? CLSA report gives time frame

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Active daily cases in the ongoing second Covid-19 wave in Maharashtra may peak in May and June for overall India, according to global brokerage firm CLSA.

“The second wave has just crossed the four-month mark for Maharashtra but it has been a lesser 70 days for India. Therefore, India may get to this median mark of four months by mid-Jun 2021 and India ex-Maharashtra by end-June,” said CLSA.

The country on Wednesday recorded a massive surge of 3,60,960 cases and 3,293 deaths, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. CLSA added that based on the current 7-Day Moving Average (DMA), reported infections will hit the median level of 2.5% by mid-Jun 2021 in India while Maharashtra has already crossed this mark.

“At the same pace, India may take nearly two months to get to incremental infections equal to 2% of its population, from 0.5% currently, during the second wave. Maharashtra is currently at 1.8% and should get to this level in less than a week,” the overseas firm said in a report.

CLSA added that a detailed study on 12 countries shows that the infection normally peaked when reported cumulative infections hit a median level of 2.5% of the population in the respective country.

While allaying the fear of investors, it added that the pick-up in vaccinations and comforting management commentary during the ongoing results season should subsidise the uncertainty over the coming weeks.