Economists sees 7-9% GDP growth in second quarter

Festival demand the main growth driver; official figures will be out tomorrow

  • Money9
  • Publish Date - November 29, 2021 / 07:06 PM IST
Economists sees 7-9% GDP growth in second quarter
In September, it had revised down India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to 10%, from 11% predicted earlier, citing the adverse impact of the second wave of the pandemic.

The GDP figures for the second quarter of the current fiscal are expected to be out tomorrow. Economists, quoted in the Business Standard, have projected a growth rate of 7-9% in the Q2 against a contraction of 7.4% in the same period of the previous fiscal year

For the first three months of the year, the economy had registered a growth of 20.1 % , mainly on account of low base of 24.4% in the year-ago period.

CARE Ratings Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis is quoted by the Business Standard as saying that the economy has done well in second quarter of FY22 after lockdown restrictions were eased in most states from July onwards. He added that the manufacturing sector, with its recovery during the festival season, gave the impetus to the economy. The services sector is not as promising, according to Sabnavis who, however, said many state governments gradually opened these services after September.

Yuvika Singhal, economist at QuantEco Research, is quoted saying that relaxation lockdown restrictions by states and vaccination programmes were key drivers in Q2FY22.

Healthy pick up expected

Festival demand and a pick-up in government spending in September, have also aided the economic activity.

A healthy pick-up in momentum of both industry and the services sector output is expected, said Singhal.

Ranen Banerjee, leader of economic advisory services at PwC India, is quoted as saying in the report that high frequency indicators in many cases had reached close to pre-pandemic levels by September this year.

India Ratings & Research Chief Economist Devendra Pant said cited base effect and festival demand as factors responsible for growth in Q2 .

State Bank of India Group Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh said projected growth of 8.1% for India in Q2FY22 would be the highest across economies.

ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar cited factors such as healthy central and state government spending, robust merchandise exports, and continuing demand from the farm

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