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Icra revised its 2020-21 real GDP growth for India to 9% from the earlier 8.5% on Monday. The revision comes on the back of ramping up Covid-19 vaccination, good advance estimates of Kharif crop and faster government spending, the ratings agency said in a statement. Also, it can be noted that there was a higher expectation of the growth estimates in 2021-22, after a 7.3% contraction in 2020-21. The ratings agency said that it expects the second half of the fiscal year to have brighter prospects.
Late sowing increased Kharif acreage
Icra also added that the wider Covid-19 vaccine coverage is likely to boost confidence, which will re-energise demand for contact-intensive services, helping to revive certain portions of the economy affected by the pandemic the most.
It also added that the robust Kharif harvest is likely to sustain the consumption demand in the farm sector, while the acceleration in the central government’s spending after the withdrawal of the earlier cash management guidelines will reboost this key driver of aggregate demand.
The potential third Covid wave is seen as the key risk to the revised projection of 9% GDP growth, with the existing vaccines being ineffective against newer mutations of the virus, Icra said.
The agency estimates that by the end of 2021, nearly three-fourths of Indian adults could receive their second vaccine shot, if the average 7.9 million doses a day record between September 1-26 is sustained.
It further added that the late sowing has helped to bring in the Kharif acreage almost at par with the last year’s record area. This is in line with the first advance estimates of crop production for 2021-22 which marked a robust increase in kharif output, barring coarse cereals and oilseeds, quelling concerns raised by uneven monsoon and flooding.
The agency has revised up its GVA (Gross Value Added) growth estimate for agriculture, forestry and fishing to 3% each in the second and third quarters of 2021-22, from the earlier projection of a tepid rise of 2%, based on all these.