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India Ratings and Research (Ind Ra) on Thursday revised upwards its 2021-22 GDP growth forecast to 9.4% considering the surprisingly faster recovery after the second wave of Covid, higher exports and sufficient rainfall.
The rating agency had earlier expected the economy to grow by 9.1% in a scenario where vaccinating all the adults gets pushed back to March 2022 and 9.6% if the government achieves its target of rendering vaccine doses by December.
On Thursday, Ind Ra said the government is likely to miss its target, and vaccinating all adults will get spilled over to March, but revised upwards the growth forecast.
Its principal economist and director of public finance, Sunil Kumar Sinha explained that the recovery in June and July from the after-effects of the second wave of the pandemic has been surprisingly fast, calling it as one of the main reasons for the revision.
Additionally, the global markets are also doing good as the COVID threats ebb leading to higher exports in India, while the south west monsoon has revived which increases the prospects on the rural economy front, Sinha said, pointing that these factors prompted the new growth estimate.
The Reserve Bank of India has maintained its estimate of 9.5% growth for 2021-22 while other analysts’ estimates vary from 7.9% to double-digit.