Rail passengers up, freight down as economy expanded slowly last week: Report

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As the economy opens up gradually after the easing of restrictions in different states, there are mixed indicators of performance in various sectors of the economy. A research agency has observed that electricity generation and rail passenger traffic have surpassed or are close to pre-pandemic levels while rail freight and E-way bill generation are significantly below pre-pandemic levels. Research agency QuantEco in its weekly economy tracker has that said apart from rail passengers and electricity generation, the indicators that have approached or surpassed the levels before pandemic are grocery/pharma related mobility and mobility related to parks.

Those activities which are well below the pre-pandemic levels include traffic congestion, online restaurant searches and workplace-related movements apart from E-way bills and rail freight.

Goods movement down

Both e-way bills (that are required for commercial movement of goods worth more than Rs 50,000) and rail freight are crucial indicators of transport of goods across regions for consumption.

There is a category of indicators that are somewhere midway between these two categories of ‘achievers’ and ‘under achievers’. These are unemployment, retail/recreation-related mobility and Apple driving mobility.

Rates of unemployment as monitored by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy came down from its double-digit peaks and settled significantly below the double-digit mark.

For the week ending July 11, the 30-day moving average of unemployment rate in Pan-India, urban and rural sectors hovered in the 7%-9% range.

Slow expansion

QuantEco’s Daily Activity and Recovery Trackers recorded its eighth consecutive week of expansion, with the index now only about 5% below pre-second Covid peak.

“Successive DART readings may exhibit a levelling off of incremental recovery in Q2 FY22 amidst impending threat of Covid virus variants and consumption seeing a drawn-out recovery. A slower decline in new Covid cases along with select states/districts witnessing a nascent rise in infections remains on close watch. The average daily pace of vaccinations slipping to 3.8 million in H1 July 2021 from a peak of 6.2 million in the last week of June 2021 is concerning, as acceleration in vaccinations has the potential to set the stage for a stronger sequential growth rebound Q3 FY22 onwards,” said the agency in its report.