RIL shares down ahead of Q4 results; here’s what to expect

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Reliance Industries (RIL) traded lower in Friday’s afternoon trade ahead of its financial results for the quarter ended March 31. The scrip traded 0.85% down at Rs 2,006 at around 3 pm (IST). On the other hand, the benchmark BSE Sensex traded 802 points down at 48,963 at around the same time.

Nomura believes that Reliance Industries may report 135% year-on-year growth in net profit at Rs 14,950 crore.

“We forecast RIL’s consolidated EBITDA to grow 7% QoQ and 5% YoY. For the oil to chemicals segment, we expect EBIT to grow 22% YoY driven by a better refining and strong petchem margin. In retail, we forecast further QoQ volume recovery and expect revenue to recover to pre-pandemic levels. For Jio, we expect subs addition to remain muted. With the removal of IUC charges, ARPU will look lower (we expect Rs 140 against Rs 151 in 3Q), but RIL is a net beneficiary, and we expect EBITDA margin to rise to nearly 49%,” the Japanese brokerage said.

On the other hand, Axis Securities projected 27% growth in consolidated adjusted profit after tax on 2% YoY growth in sales and 3% growth in EBITDA.

“Net profit to increase by 3.7% QoQ on higher EBITDA. We see subscriber addition at around 7 million in Q4 against 5.2 mn in Q3 due to a reduction in churn. The average revenue per user (Arpu) to drop by 9% to Rs 137 (Rs 151 in Q3) due to IUC turning zero. In the retail business, revenue is seen increasing 6% QoQ to Rs 39,100 crore and adjusted Ebitda rising 24% QoQ to around Rs 2,700 crore at EBITDA margin of 7%,” Axis Securities added.