US Fed, BoJ policy decisions, crude oil prices among key factors that may decide market trend next week

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Global central banks policy decisions, the trend in global stock markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil prices will dictate the trend on the bourses in the near term.

Investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will be monitored. The key thing to watch out for in the coming weeks would be the US bond yields because any rise in yields can take out the FII money from developing countries like India to western markets and could also be a risk for emerging markets currencies.

The Dollar Index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six peers, will also be closely watched. Local stocks posted modest gains in the truncated trading week amid volatility.

The Nifty index settled above the key 15,000-mark after falling moving above and below that level during the week. Global markets advanced this week on the passage of Washington’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package and after the ECB pledged to ramp up the bond-buying program and bond yields fell sharply.

For the week ended March 12, the Sensex rose 386.76 points or 0.77% to settle at 50,792.08. The Nifty 50 index gained 92.85 points or 0.62% to settle at 15,030.95.

Updates related to COVID-19 will be closely watched. Also on the radar will be news on Covid vaccine development.

From here on the pace of the improvement of economic indicators along with outcomes of a possible vaccine or cure for COVID-19 would determine the movement of the market.

Total COVID-19 confirmed cases worldwide stood at 11,85,71,592 with 26,29,625 deaths. India reported 1,97,237 active cases of COVID-19 infection and 1,58,306 deaths while 1,09,53,303 patients have been discharged, according to the data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

On the macro front, the government will unveil data on inflation based on the wholesale price index for February on March 15. Overseas, Japan will declare inflation data for February on March 18. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its interest rate decision on March 19. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision after its two-day policy meeting on March 17. In Europe, ZEW Economic Sentiment index for March will be released on March 16.

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