Covid-19 vaccine: India eyeing for $11 billion market opportunity

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India’s pharmaceutical sector is expecting to leverage the market opportunity to the tune of $11 billion from Covid-19 vaccine supply in domestic as well as export markets in the next three years, according to rating agency Care Ratings.

At present, the US-based multinational companies for vaccines are getting premium pricing between  $15 and $25 per dose. The report suggests that Indian vaccine makers are unlikely to get such high premium pricing. Their average realization could remain anywhere between  $3.25 and $3.50 per dose, as compared to the US vaccine manufacturers.

“On an aggregate level (i.e., domestic plus export), Care Ratings expects supply opportunity of at least around USD 10-11 billion during the next three years for the Indian vaccine manufacturers,” the report said.

The majority of domestic demand is likely to be met by March 2022, as Europe, North America, and developed Asian countries will likely exhaust the export opportunities in the high-income markets.

Various African, Asian excluding China and Japan and some South American countries, will still have export opportunities as the pace of vaccination remains very slow there. It is expected to remain greater than 1.25 billion doses as per the report.

Over 4.35 billion Covid-19 vaccine shots have been administered globally, as of August 10, 2021. The USA, China and most of the European countries have vaccinated more than 50%of their total eligible population with at least one dose.

India had administered around 500 million (50 crore) Covid-19 vaccine doses, as of August 10, 2021. It still needs to administer at least another two billion vaccine doses. The pace of vaccination in India has been steady at about 50-55 lakh doses per day mainly due to huge demand with supply (despite being sizable) unable to match the immediate demand.

There are five vaccines approved by the Indian regulator for emergency use authorization and another three are under various stages.

The opportunity for domestic pharmaceutical companies in the Indian market is about $4.6 billion at present and with an increase in exports, it is expected to increase to $4.9 billion during 2022.

With near saturation of demand, the sales opportunity is expected to come down to about $1.6 billion during 2023, thus, $10-11 billion worth of opportunity for Indian vaccine manufacturers during 2021-2023, Care Ratings explained.