Festive season: Celebrate with caution

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With Raksha Bandhan and Onam, the festival season has set in. The festival season would peak in October-November, ebb for a few weeks and then resume for the Christmas-year-end period. This is the time when people open their purse strings and incur a large part of the discretionary expenditure during this time of the year. It is this splurge in the expenditure that infuses a lot of life into the economy by raising income levels vertically down the society. Marketers look forward to the expenditure during the festivities every year. Sales of all product categories from consumer durables to personal care items, vehicles to apparels surge during the festive season accounting for a significant part of the annual revenues for many firms. From economists to governments, policymakers to corporate strategists many people look forward to the consumer confidence index which drives discretionary expenditure.

After a dip due to the second Covid wave, consumer confidence is gradually inching up again. Policymakers are heaving a sigh of relief since it would lead to the rise of aggregate demand in the economy and bring smiles to marketers since, in turn, it might trigger to the creation of new capacities in industry and employment in the country. EPFO data shows new jobs being created in the formal sector and it might get a boost.

However, this year’s celebration also needs to be tempered with caution. People should think twice before splurging. The third wave might be lurking around the corner. In case it inundates the country again, it would trigger a slowdown and impact incomes. This year it might be prudent to rein in expenses and save for the rainy day. One should also be cautious and exercise restraint in celebration. Crowds and unbridled movement and crowding can invite the pandemic once again – we are far from unraveling the secrets of the behaviour of the virus. We should not sing and dance to our way in hell.