Invest in Credit Risk Mutual Fund or not?

During the last week, market started with a big gap down opening and the sell-off aggravated to test the levels of 16400 on Monday itself. However some respite was seen pushing index towards 16600 on closing basis. This was then followed by a strong bounce back by bulls for the next four sessions and eventually after making an intra-day high of 17155 on Friday; Nifty eventually ended tad above 17000 with no major change on week on week basis.

Certainly, bears have lost the momentum as we do see a formation of ‘Bullish Hammer’ on the weekly chart however we are still not out of woods. We do see a sturdy wall around the 17200 – 17300 and bulls need to surpass it convincingly to regain back the momentum on its side. During the week, we witnessed out-performance by IT index as it scaled to new high whereas on the other hand the bank index continued to underperform. We sense if the tide has to turn on the bulls side again then the banking space needs to pull up their socks and need to outperform. On the flip side, immediate support is seen for the benchmark around the 16870 – 16900 levels.

 Stock recommendations:

1.  NSE Scrip Code – TCS

 View                  –   Bullish

Last Close          –   Rs. 3670.90

Justification – While the benchmark index Nifty is far from its all time high the Nifty IT is trading at all time high levels. During the week, we witnessed strong out performance from stock within this pack and we expect this performance to continue. On the daily chart, the stock prices after forming a base at 89EMA have given a range breakout. This breakout is supported with momentum indicator RSI placed in positive territory. Analyzing both sector as well as the stock we sense this heavyweight counter to outperform and hence we recommend a buy for a near term target of Rs. 3840. The stop loss can be placed at Rs. 3590.

2.  NSE Scrip Code – SRF

 View                  –   Bullish

Last Close          –   Rs. 2315.95

This stock has been a strong out performer however post making a all time high above 2500 levels in the October we have seen a decent price as well as time correction. On the daily chart after forming a base around the 2100 levels we are now witnessing a ‘Channel’ breakout that can be termed as a continuation pattern. In addition, prices are well above key averages and oscillators supporting the buy call. Hence we recommend a buy for a near term target of Rs. 2600. The stop loss can be placed at Rs. 2170.

(The author is a technical analyst, views are personal)