Senior citizens to form 15% of India’s population in 13 years, 20% by 2050: UN

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By the end of the 21st century India will be burdened with an ageing population with the elderly constituting more than one-third (about 36%) of the total population. The Times of India has reported that the UN report has observed that there has been a sharp growth in the elderly population in the country since 2010. The projections indicate that in 2046 the number of elderly persons in India will be higher than the population of children between 0-14 years. Moreover, there will be a dip in number of people between 15 to 59 years. “Undoubtedly relatively young India today will turn into a rapidly aging society in the coming decades,” read the India Aging Report 2023. The report was released on September 27 by the United Nations Population Fund. The report also stated that India had 14.9 crore people who were aged 60+ on July 1, 2022. It translated into 10.5% of the country’s population. But by 2036, the elderly population is supposed to climb to 22.7 crore or 15%. Outlining the problems of old age, the report state that 24% of the elderly face restrictions on activities of daily living, while 23% suffer from two or more chronic ailments labelled as multi-morbidity. The highest restrictions on activities of daily life are witnessed in West Bengal (38%), Goa (37%) and Maharashtra (36%). While the multi-morbidity rates are the highest in Kerala (52.2%) it is the lowest in Nagaland with 7.3%. As many as 22% of the elderly struggle in poverty. The elderly in the poorest wealth quintile range from 4.2% in Jammu to 47% in Chhattisgarh. A substantial 19% of the elderly do not have any income of their own. This proportion of income-less senior citizens was above the national level among 17 states. All these data were drawn from UNFPA report analysis based on 2017/18 Longitudinal Ageing Study in India Wave-1 data. Population estimates in 2021 suggested that according to the “aging index”, for every 100 children in the country there are 39 older persons. The southern and western Indian states display higher aging compared to central and northeastern states. Projections indicate that in 2021, there were 16 older persons for every 100 working-age persons in India. However, there were considerable variations across different regions. In this respect too, old-age dependency ratio was higher in the south than the national average. The UNFPA analysis shows that one of the features of aging is considerable variation between states in absolute levels and growth and hence, share of the senior citizens. Most of the southern states and a few northern states like Himachal Pradesh and Punjab had a higher share of senior citizens that the country’s average in 2021. The gap is supposed to widen by 2036. Highlighting how fast the older population will grow, the section on “aging of the aged” said that between 2022 and 2050, the total population of India will grow by 18% but the elderly population will grow by 134%. The population of super senior citizens (aged 80+ years) will grow at 279% in the same time period. A higher share of the elderly brings multiple challenges for the government ranging from pension benefits to medical facilities. Further, it also sends adverse signals to investors who always look for healthy, young workers.