Biz activity rises for 6th straight week: Report

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Business resumption activity continued to increase for the sixth straight week after the second wave-induced lockdowns started getting lifted, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) rose up to 91.3 for the week ended June 4, from 86.3 the previous week, and is only 8.7 percentage points (pp) below pre-pandemic levels and 3.6 pp below pre-second wave level, the brokerage said.

Mobility indicators like Google’s workplace and retail and recreation mobility indices increased 3.1 pp and 6.9 pp, respectively, from the previous week, while the Apple driving index rose 10.3 pp, it said.

Power demand surged 6.9% as compared to the previous week, on top of the 7.8% rise in the previous week, while the labour participation rate inched down to 39.6%, it said.

Despite softer manufacturing and services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) and stagnant railway freight revenues, monthly data for June like trade, GST e-way bills, and auto and diesel sales have improved sequentially from the levels in May, it said.

The economic hit is likely to be contained within the June quarter, the brokerage said maintaining that its 10.4% GDP growth estimate for FY22.

“We expect a higher average vaccination pace in July than the 3.8 million doses a day in June, due to improving supply, but the real pivot will likely take place in August, when we expect supply capacity to rise materially,” it said.