Inflation: Eye on granular data; four states suffer inflation of 6% or more

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Every month the country awaits with bated breath NSO’s (National Statistical Office) announcement of retail inflation figures for the country. However, for a heterogeneous country like India, the rate of price rise that happens in different states and markets are hardly homogeneous and the rates, in fact, vary quite widely from state to state. Therefore, it makes eminent sense to keep an eye on the granular rates of inflation in different regions across this vast country. For example, the latest data for September show that retail inflation has come down from 6.8% in August to a far more tolerable 5%. However, residents of Rajasthan and Haryana recorded the highest rates of inflation, while residents of Chhattisgarh and Delhi far less price pressures. The inflation rates in Karnataka, Telangana, Haryana and Rajasthan had to put up with rates equal to or higher 6% — the upper band of the tolerance limit of Reserve Bank of India. Odisha, which recorded a rate of 5.9%, was the other state in the top five. However, the inflation in Chhattisgarh was at a mere 2%, the lowest in the country. The second lowest was 2.2% in Delhi. The other three states that were in the bottom five were J&K (3.5%), West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh (both 3.7%). The RBI has repeatedly said that its long-term goal is to reach 4% CPI-based inflation and maintain it at that level. As many as 13 of the 22 states and Union territories suffered higher rates of inflation than the headline number of 5% in September. The largest state of the country Uttar Pradesh recorded a higher-than-the-average rate at 5.5%. Though, according to most economists, India has the apparent comfort of reaching a growth rate of 6%+, almost everybody in the country and abroad has warned of inflation rates that might be uncomfortable for the common man. Simply put, a higher rate of inflation is likely to affect consumption and bring down the rate of GDO growth. It would also prevent the central bank from trimming interest rates that would also prevent the supply side to respond with expanded capacities. Inflation singed the common man in July when it shot up to 7.44%, riding on the back of high vegetable prices with tomato being singled out as the key villain. Experts have warned of high food inflation and have also advised a constant vigil on the crude prices that might upset inflation calculations. While Russia and Saudi Arabia raised crude prices by cutting production, the Israel-Hamas conflict in West Asia has the potential to trigger another price rise, especially if the conflict drags on.