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The Dollar Index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six peers, will also be closely watched
The RBI policy and macroeconomic data could be the trigger for the market in the forthcoming week. Trend in global stock markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil prices will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term. Investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will be monitored. Markets were closed on Friday, April 2, on account of Good Friday.
The key thing to watch out for in the near future would be the US bond yields because any rise in yields can take out the FII money from developing countries like India to western markets and could also be a risk for emerging markets currencies.
The Dollar Index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six peers, will also be closely watched.
In economic data, Markit Manufacturing PMI for March will be declared on 5 April 2021. Markit Services PMI for March will be declared on 7 April 2021.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is slated to announce its first bi-monthly monetary policy of the 2021-22 fiscal on April 7, 2021 after a three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Any change in policy outcome may impact the monthly instalments of consumers.
On the political front, all eyes will be on outcome of state assembly elections. Polls are to be held for 294 seats in West Bengal, 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, 140 seats in Kerala, 126 seats in Assam and 30 seats in the Union Territory of Puducherry.
The eight-phase election in West Bengal which began from March 27 will continue till April 29. Elections in Kerala will be held in a single phase on April 6. Puducherry will vote in a single phase on April 6. Elections in Tamil Nadu will be held in a single phase on April 6. Assam will vote in three phases on March 27, April 1 and April 6. The counting of votes for all states will be held on May 2 and the results will be declared the same day.
Updates related to COVID-19 will be closely watched. Also on the radar will be news on Covid vaccine development. From here on the pace of the improvement of economic indicators along with outcomes of a possible vaccine or cure for COVID-19 would determine the movement of the market.
Total COVID-19 confirmed cases worldwide stood at 12,89,13,887 with 28,16,081 deaths. India reported 5,84,055 active cases of COVID-19 infection and 1,62,927 deaths while 1,14,74,683 patients have been discharged, according to the data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.
Overseas, China will announce inflation rate for March on 9 April 2021.
The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for March will be declared on 5 April 2021.
The US Non Farm Payrolls data for March will be announced on 2 April 2021.
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