States face drought-like conditions due to ‘below normal’ monsoon

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Several states across India are likely to face a drought-like condition due to the rainfall deficiency as the four-month monsoon season enters its final phase. The pan-India seasonal rainfall deficiency remained at 9% till mid-August. There has been no indication of an increase in the rainfall for the remaining month of the season, according to an assessment by weather analytics firm Skymet.

Skymet on Monday downgraded India’s monsoon to ‘below normal’ from its initial forecast of ‘normal’ that was released earlier in April. As per Skymet, there is a 60% chance that the monsoon, which has entered its final month of the season, will be below normal. It also said that the southwest monsoon (SW) is now expected to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with a model error of plus/minus 4%. The LPA, which is the average rainfall received between 1951 and 2001, for June-September stands at 880.6 millimetres.

“The Southwest Monsoon had a timely onset and made a good start with June ending above normal at 110% of the LPA. July started on a weak note and the month was marred with a pronged break till July 11. Therefore, the month finished with below-normal rainfall at 93% of LPA. June and July ended with 110% and 93% of LPA against Skymet’s forecast of 106% and 97% respectively,” said Skymet in a statement.

Rainfall deficiency across India

As per the forecast, the SW monsoon faced the second ‘break monsoon’ during the first fortnight of August and prolonged weak monsoon conditions resulted in pan-India seasonal rainfall deficiency settling at 9% till the middle of the month. There has been no improvement in the status of the monsoon until now.

The forecast also spoke about the places that are expected to be hit by deficient rains and the ones where the possibility of drought is looming.

According to Skymet’s assessment, states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala, and Northeast region could possibly witness a deficit in rains, while Gujarat and West Rajasthan could face drought. It also said that the rainfed areas of Maharashtra, MP and UP have received satisfactory rainfall and this might not lead to any stress in the production of food in those regions.

Jatin Singh, MD of Skymet, said that the weakness in monsoon could be because of the prolonged negative phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and extended break conditions in July and August. He further added that there are still no clear signs about the possible emergence of IOD in September.