Icra pegs Q4 GDP growth at 2%; projects 7.3% contraction in FY21
Its chief economist Aditi Nayar expects the annualised GDP growth at 2% in the March quarter, up from 0.4% in the December quarter
Mumbai: Domestic rating agency Icra on May 24 forecast a 2% uptick in growth during the March FY21 quarter, and 3% from the gross value-added perspective.
This would mean that the NSO projection of a double-dip contraction would be avoided.
The agency has projected a the full-year contraction at 7.3%.
Its chief economist Aditi Nayar expects the annualised GDP growth at 2% in the March quarter, up from 0.4% in the December quarter.
The agency has projected the GVA growth at 3 per cent in Q4 of FY21, up from 1 per cent in Q3, suggesting that the double-dip recession implied by the National Statistics Office (NSO) for Q4 would be averted.
“We have forecast GDP growth to trail the GVA expansion in Q4, on account of the assessed impact of the back-ended release of subsidies by the government. Given the latter, we believe the trend in the GVA performance may be a more meaningful gauge of the economic recovery in Q4,” Nayar said.
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