In May, cruel sun promises April rerun, warns met office

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If April has produced sweat and tears for large parts of the country, May would have more of it with two to eight heatwaves, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned, simultaneously holding out the prospect of “normal rainfall” over the country as a whole.

Rainfall during May could range from 91% to 109% of the long period average (LPA), director general, IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, told the media on May 1. Mohapatra said that normal to above-normal precipitation could bring some succour to parts of northwest India, some parts of northeast, central and peninsular India.

But the sun could be merciless on several regions such as southern Rajasthan, western Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra’s Vidarbha and Marathwada, triggering five to eight heatwave days this month.

There will be two to four heatwave days over remaining parts of Rajasthan, eastern Madhya Pradesh, the whole states of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana. Coming under this bracket are some parts of Chhattisgarh, parts Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, north interior Karnataka and Telangana and isolated pockets of north Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.

Economists have already cautioned about the deleterious effects of the heatwaves including stubbornly high prices of vegetables and perishables that could push up the retail inflation figures by 30 to 50 basis points this summer.

While much of the atrocity is supposed to be attributable to El Nino – RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has been repeatedly cautioning about its effect on inflation and, in turn, monetary policy since last summer – IMD said it could persist through the northern hemisphere in early summer this year. A transition from El Nino to ENSO-neutral could take place by April-June this year and there is 83% chance of it. There is increasing odds of La Nina developing in June-August 2024 and there is 62% chance of this development happening.

Apart from inflationary pressure, elevated temperatures for a sustained period expose huge sections of the people, particularly, the aged and children to exhaustion and heatstroke which can even be fatal.

In April, Odisha suffered the most heatwave days since 2016 – at 16 days. Last month, the southern peninsula recorded a rise in above-average maximum temperatures for the first time since the 1980s. In these regions, the minimum temperature in April was the second highest since 1901.

Gangetic West Bengal suffered intense heat wave for the highest number of days in 15 years and nine years in Odisha.